Prediction of Road Handling Cost Using Markov Chain Method in Regency Road Network

The use of budget in road management must be effective and efficient by providing the optimal pavement performance values. problem cost optimization handling programs West Bangka Regency is lack information regarding with changes conditions that will occur future due to pattern carried out, so required a method capable predict conditions. purpose this study determine based on value from prediction results using Markov chain method. Modeling requires an initial condition vector Transition Probability Matrix (TPM). main data used development model history for 2012 - 2017. application network period 2018 2022 shows drastic decrease conditions, if not conducted action damage, change Good (B) 63.7% 2017 become 12.3% 2022. Based simulation program during period, produce estimated Rp. 45.338.471.000 at end 58.6%. are expected could assist managers context preparation program.